Lincoln International’s Energy Transition, Power & Infrastructure Group recently attended the 2025 Infrastructure Investor Global Summit, one of the industry’s largest events that brought together leaders, investors and experts from across the infrastructure sector.

1

 Geopolitical Uncertainty Tops Investor Concerns

While regulatory changes, inflation and interest rate hikes often dominate headlines, these challenges are not top-of-mind for most infrastructure investors. According to survey results, geopolitical uncertainty emerged as the leading concern, cited by 62% of respondents. Extreme market valuations (39%) and recessions in core markets (38%) followed closely, reflecting growing caution about macroeconomic conditions and their impact on investment performance over the next 12 months.

2

Fundraising Optimism is in the Air

After a particularly challenging 2024, when capital raised fell to $89 billion—the lowest level since 2015—investor sentiment is rebounding. Fundraising in 2025 is tracking toward $100 billion, with approximately $30 billion raised in Q1 alone. This renewed optimism reflects a belief among industry participants that tailwinds such as energy transition and infrastructure adjacencies will drive growth in the coming year.

3

European Investors Benefitting from Political Shifts

The European energy transition environment is beginning to benefit from uncertainty surrounding the current US administration’s take on existing policies, including delays in decision-making related to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). These delays and broader political shifts are beginning to push renewable infrastructure investments out of the U.S. and into Europe.

Investors in Europe are increasingly aware of the tailwinds emerging around the European defense industry, reflecting efforts to begin to reduce reliance on the U.S. As a notable example, Germany’s historic €1 trillion defense and infrastructure spending plan is expected to drive capital toward manufacturers and infrastructure sponsors across the region. Germany has been one of the early leaders by signaling its commitment to a new wave of investment, but it is not expected to be the last, with other countries set to make potentially similar announcements over the coming 12 months.

Defense has historically never been a topic for investment discussion by the infrastructure investment community until recently. It is expected that one might begin to see investments emerge initially through investments in companies providing services to this industry.

4

Nuclear as an Infrastructure Investment

Private capital is expected to play a critical role in meeting Europe’s overall energy needs. Following recent announcements in the UK establishing groundbreaking nuclear targets, it is clear that nuclear energy through investments in Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) will end up featuring in the overall European energy mix in the 2030s.

These reactors are gaining interest due to heightened energy security concerns, rising power demand from data centers and their constant availability as a low carbon solution, compared to renewables. However, challenges remain: SMRs are costly to build, operate and scale, requiring further development and reductions in cost, similar to what has been seen in the renewables industry before they gain widespread appeal. Lincoln’s Energy Transition Group previously addressed SMRs as investable assets in a discussion with PE Hub, highlighting their potential to reshape infrastructure investment strategies.

5

Energy Transition Accelerated by AI

Energy transition remains a dominant theme in Europe, where efforts are strengthening through 2025. Approximately 90% of new sector fund allocations so far this year have been dedicated to data centers and renewable infrastructure. Innovative funding models, such as open-ended perpetual funds for AI, have been called upon to emerge, with GIP and BlackRock actively exploring these ideas to address the growing need for data center financing. AI-driven solutions are increasingly viewed as a critical component in the acceleration of the energy transition as well as infrastructure investment momentum.

6

Growth in Adjacency Investments

Continued delays in obtaining permits for energy infrastructure projects are driving current investor interest toward adjacencies—sectors that support infrastructure assets rather than the assets themselves. In offshore wind, for example, investors are increasingly deploying capital to ports, ships and service providers that facilitate grid infrastructure rather than focusing exclusively on wind turbines as has happened historically. This shift reflects a growing need to deploy capital creatively in response to regulatory and other economic hurdles that arise.

Implications for 2025, in Europe and Beyond

European infrastructure investors are poised to capitalize on tailwinds created by geopolitical shifts and increased capital raising. Well-established sectors, such as renewable energy, and newer ones in infrastructure adjacencies will see strong investor interest throughout the year, supported by optimism and early momentum. Despite lingering macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns, innovators and changemakers in these spaces are well-positioned for growth.

Lincoln International’s Energy Transition, Power & Infrastructure Group has the expertise to navigate this evolving landscape. Since 2019, we have successfully closed 145 sector transactions across diverse verticals. Connect with our bankers today to learn how we can help achieve your strategic goals.